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Arbëria vs Prishtina — Cup 2019

Arbëria
Arbëria
FT
0 – 1
Prishtina
Prishtina
12/8/2019CupCup · 8th FinalsStadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Arbëria24%
×Draw25%
Prishtina50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arbëria
1.02
Prishtina
1.58

Prishtina creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Arbëria
1.33
Prishtina
2.50

allows per match

Arbëria
0.67
Prishtina
0.71

finishing

Arbëria+0.00on par
Prishtina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbëria ↓

Prishtina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arbëria or draw
50%
Arbëria or Prishtina
75%
Draw or Prishtina
76%

Winning margin

Arbëria wins by 2+
9%
Prishtina wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Arbëria 1+ goals
64%
Arbëria 2+ goals
27%
Arbëria 3+ goals
8%
Prishtina 1+ goals
79%
Prishtina 2+ goals
47%
Prishtina 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Arbëria (draw refunded)
33%
Prishtina (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arbëria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Prishtina away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arbëria attack 1.33 + Prishtina defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Prishtina attack 2.50 + Arbëria defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arbëria scores more
24%
level
25%
Prishtina scores more
50%

Prishtina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Prishtina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Arbëria 0–1 Prishtina

Prishtina beat Arbëria 1-0 in Cup on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Pristina.