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Arbëria vs Gjilani — Superliga 2019

Arbëria
Arbëria
FT
1 – 0
Gjilani
Gjilani
11/24/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 14Stadiumi Agron Rama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Arbëria27%
×Draw25%
Gjilani48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arbëria
1.15
Gjilani
1.61

Gjilani creates 40% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 124 away

creates per match

Arbëria
1.11
Gjilani
1.28

allows per match

Arbëria
1.94
Gjilani
1.19

finishing

Arbëria+0.00on par
Gjilani+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbëria ↓

Gjilani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arbëria or draw
52%
Arbëria or Gjilani
75%
Draw or Gjilani
73%

Winning margin

Arbëria wins by 2+
11%
Gjilani wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Arbëria 1+ goals
68%
Arbëria 2+ goals
32%
Arbëria 3+ goals
11%
Gjilani 1+ goals
80%
Gjilani 2+ goals
48%
Gjilani 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Arbëria (draw refunded)
36%
Gjilani (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arbëria at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

Gjilani away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arbëria attack 1.11 + Gjilani defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Gjilani attack 1.28 + Arbëria defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arbëria scores more
27%
level
25%
Gjilani scores more
48%

Gjilani at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gjilani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arbëria vs Gjilani

Arbëria beat Gjilani 1-0 in Superliga on November 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Agron Rama in Kastriot.