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Araz vs Turan — Premyer Liqa 2019

Araz
Araz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Turan
Turan
4/18/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 31Liv Bona Dea Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Araz34%
×Draw29%
Turan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araz
1.11
Turan
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 73 away

creates per match

Araz
1.08
Turan
1.14

allows per match

Araz
1.19
Turan
1.15

finishing

Araz+0.00on par
Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araz ↓

Turan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Araz or draw
63%
Araz or Turan
71%
Draw or Turan
66%

Winning margin

Araz wins by 2+
14%
Turan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Araz 1+ goals
67%
Araz 2+ goals
30%
Araz 3+ goals
10%
Turan 1+ goals
69%
Turan 2+ goals
33%
Turan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Araz (draw refunded)
48%
Turan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araz at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

Turan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.15 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araz attack 1.08 + Turan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Turan attack 1.14 + Araz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Araz scores more
34%
level
29%
Turan scores more
37%

Turan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Turan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Araz 1 – 1 Turan

Araz and Turan drew 1-1 in Premyer Liqa on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Liv Bona Dea Arena in Baku.