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Araz vs Sabah FA — Premyer Liqa 2019

Araz
Araz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
5/3/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 33Liv Bona Dea Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Araz31%
×Draw27%
Sabah FA42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araz
1.13
Sabah FA
1.35

Sabah FA creates 19% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 109 away

creates per match

Araz
1.08
Sabah FA
1.51

allows per match

Araz
1.19
Sabah FA
1.17

finishing

Araz+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araz ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Araz or draw
58%
Araz or Sabah FA
73%
Draw or Sabah FA
69%

Winning margin

Araz wins by 2+
13%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Araz 1+ goals
68%
Araz 2+ goals
31%
Araz 3+ goals
11%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
74%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
39%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Araz (draw refunded)
43%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araz at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araz attack 1.08 + Sabah FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sabah FA attack 1.51 + Araz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Araz scores more
31%
level
27%
Sabah FA scores more
42%

Sabah FA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Araz 1–1 Sabah FA

Araz and Sabah FA drew 1-1 in Premyer Liqa on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Liv Bona Dea Arena in Baku.