Aravaca 3–1 Trival Valderas: Result & Stats

Aravaca

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Trival Valderas

12/1/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio Antonio Sanfíz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aravaca43%

×Draw25%

Trival Valderas32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AravacaExpected goals in this matchTrival Valderas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

Aravaca

1.50

Trival Valderas

1.25

Aravaca creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 115 away

1.71

creates per match

0.97

1.53

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Aravaca

1.71

Trival Valderas

0.97

allows per match

Aravaca

1.53

Trival Valderas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aravaca+0.00on par

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aravaca ↓

Trival Valderas →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Aravaca or draw

68%

Aravaca or Trival Valderas

75%

Draw or Trival Valderas

57%

Winning margin

Aravaca wins by 2+

21%

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aravaca 1+ goals

78%

Aravaca 2+ goals

44%

Aravaca 3+ goals

19%

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

71%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

36%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Aravaca (draw refunded)

58%

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aravaca at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aravaca attack 1.71 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aravaca scores more

43%

level

25%

Trival Valderas scores more

32%

Aravaca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff