Aravaca 3–1 Torrejón: Result & Stats

Aravaca

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Torrejón

2/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio Antonio Sanfíz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aravaca42%

×Draw24%

Torrejón33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AravacaExpected goals in this matchTorrejón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.39

Aravaca

1.60

Torrejón

1.39

Aravaca creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 115 away

1.71

creates per match

1.25

1.53

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Aravaca

1.71

Torrejón

1.25

allows per match

Aravaca

1.53

Torrejón

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aravaca+0.00on par

Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aravaca ↓

Torrejón →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Aravaca or draw

67%

Aravaca or Torrejón

76%

Draw or Torrejón

58%

Winning margin

Aravaca wins by 2+

21%

Torrejón wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aravaca 1+ goals

80%

Aravaca 2+ goals

47%

Aravaca 3+ goals

22%

Torrejón 1+ goals

75%

Torrejón 2+ goals

40%

Torrejón 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Aravaca (draw refunded)

56%

Torrejón (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aravaca at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aravaca attack 1.71 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Torrejón attack 1.25 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aravaca scores more

42%

level

24%

Torrejón scores more

33%

Aravaca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff