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Aravaca vs Carabanchel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Aravaca
Aravaca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Carabanchel
Carabanchel
1/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 17Campo de Fútbol Castroserna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aravaca46%
×Draw25%
Carabanchel29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aravaca
1.61
Carabanchel
1.24

Aravaca creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Aravaca
1.71
Carabanchel
0.95

allows per match

Aravaca
1.53
Carabanchel
1.52

finishing

Aravaca+0.00on par
Carabanchel+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aravaca ↓

Carabanchel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aravaca or draw
71%
Aravaca or Carabanchel
75%
Draw or Carabanchel
54%

Winning margin

Aravaca wins by 2+
24%
Carabanchel wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aravaca 1+ goals
80%
Aravaca 2+ goals
48%
Aravaca 3+ goals
22%
Carabanchel 1+ goals
71%
Carabanchel 2+ goals
35%
Carabanchel 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aravaca (draw refunded)
61%
Carabanchel (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aravaca at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Carabanchel away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aravaca attack 1.71 + Carabanchel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.61

Carabanchel attack 0.95 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aravaca scores more
46%
level
25%
Carabanchel scores more
29%

Aravaca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Aravaca 1–1 Carabanchel

Aravaca and Carabanchel drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Castroserna in Madrid.