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Aravaca vs Canillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Aravaca
Aravaca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Canillas
Canillas
3/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Estadio Antonio Sanfíz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aravaca49%
×Draw23%
Canillas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aravaca
1.79
Canillas
1.29

Aravaca creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Aravaca
1.71
Canillas
1.04

allows per match

Aravaca
1.53
Canillas
1.86

finishing

Aravaca+0.00on par
Canillas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aravaca ↓

Canillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aravaca or draw
72%
Aravaca or Canillas
77%
Draw or Canillas
51%

Winning margin

Aravaca wins by 2+
27%
Canillas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aravaca 1+ goals
83%
Aravaca 2+ goals
53%
Aravaca 3+ goals
26%
Canillas 1+ goals
72%
Canillas 2+ goals
37%
Canillas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aravaca (draw refunded)
64%
Canillas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aravaca at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Canillas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aravaca attack 1.71 + Canillas defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Canillas attack 1.04 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aravaca scores more
49%
level
23%
Canillas scores more
28%

Aravaca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Aravaca 1–2 Canillas

Canillas beat Aravaca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Sanfíz in Madrid.