Aravaca 2–2 Alcorcón II: Result & Stats

Aravaca

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Alcorcón II

10/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Estadio Antonio Sanfíz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aravaca38%

×Draw25%

Alcorcón II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AravacaExpected goals in this matchAlcorcón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.40

Aravaca

1.41

Alcorcón II

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 97 away

1.71

creates per match

1.26

1.53

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Aravaca

1.71

Alcorcón II

1.26

allows per match

Aravaca

1.53

Alcorcón II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aravaca+0.00on par

Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aravaca ↓

Alcorcón II →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aravaca or draw

63%

Aravaca or Alcorcón II

75%

Draw or Alcorcón II

62%

Winning margin

Aravaca wins by 2+

17%

Alcorcón II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aravaca 1+ goals

76%

Aravaca 2+ goals

41%

Aravaca 3+ goals

17%

Alcorcón II 1+ goals

75%

Alcorcón II 2+ goals

41%

Alcorcón II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aravaca (draw refunded)

50%

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aravaca at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aravaca attack 1.71 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aravaca scores more

38%

level

25%

Alcorcón II scores more

37%

Aravaca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff