Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aravaca vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Aravaca
Aravaca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Estadio Antonio Sanfíz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aravaca39%
×Draw25%
Alcobendas Sport36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aravaca
1.50
Alcobendas Sport
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 117 away

creates per match

Aravaca
1.71
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Aravaca
1.53
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Aravaca+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aravaca ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aravaca or draw
64%
Aravaca or Alcobendas Sport
75%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
61%

Winning margin

Aravaca wins by 2+
19%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aravaca 1+ goals
78%
Aravaca 2+ goals
44%
Aravaca 3+ goals
19%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
76%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
41%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Aravaca (draw refunded)
52%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aravaca at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aravaca attack 1.71 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aravaca scores more
39%
level
25%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
36%

Aravaca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aravaca 1 – 1 Alcobendas Sport

Aravaca and Alcobendas Sport drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Sanfíz in Madrid.