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Araucária vs Verê — Paranaense - 2 2020

Araucária
Araucária
FT
1 – 2
Verê
Verê
9/22/2021Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Atílio Gionédis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Araucária41%
×Draw26%
Verê33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araucária
1.43
Verê
1.27

Araucária creates 13% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

creates per match

Araucária
1.35
Verê
0.70

allows per match

Araucária
1.85
Verê
1.50

finishing

Araucária+0.00on par
Verê+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araucária ↓

Verê →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Araucária or draw
67%
Araucária or Verê
74%
Draw or Verê
59%

Winning margin

Araucária wins by 2+
19%
Verê wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Araucária 1+ goals
76%
Araucária 2+ goals
42%
Araucária 3+ goals
17%
Verê 1+ goals
72%
Verê 2+ goals
36%
Verê 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Araucária (draw refunded)
55%
Verê (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araucária at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Verê away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araucária attack 1.35 + Verê defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Verê attack 0.70 + Araucária defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Araucária scores more
41%
level
26%
Verê scores more
33%

Araucária at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Araucária will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Araucária 1–2 Verê

Verê beat Araucária 2-1 in Paranaense - 2 on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Atílio Gionédis in Campo Largo, Paraná.