Araucária 0–2 Grêmio Maringá: Result & Stats

Araucária

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Grêmio Maringá

Maxwell 45+5' (pen)

Biel 5'

6/11/2023

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Atílio Gionédis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Araucária54%

×Draw22%

Grêmio Maringá24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AraucáriaExpected goals in this matchGrêmio Maringá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.27

Araucária

1.98

Grêmio Maringá

1.27

Araucária creates 56% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

1.35

creates per match

0.70

1.85

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Araucária

1.35

Grêmio Maringá

0.70

allows per match

Araucária

1.85

Grêmio Maringá

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Araucária+0.00on par

Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araucária ↓

Grêmio Maringá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Araucária or draw

76%

Araucária or Grêmio Maringá

78%

Draw or Grêmio Maringá

46%

Winning margin

Araucária wins by 2+

31%

Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Araucária 1+ goals

86%

Araucária 2+ goals

59%

Araucária 3+ goals

31%

Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals

72%

Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals

36%

Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Araucária (draw refunded)

69%

Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araucária at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Grêmio Maringá away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araucária attack 1.35 + Grêmio Maringá defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.98

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.70 + Araucária defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Araucária scores more

54%

level

22%

Grêmio Maringá scores more

24%

Araucária at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Araucária will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Biel

45+5'

MaxwellPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff