Araucaria U20 1–1 Cascavel U20: Result & Stats

Araucaria U20

FT

1 – 1

Cascavel U20

3/23/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 4Campo do Contenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Araucaria U2037%

×Draw23%

Cascavel U2041%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Araucaria U20Expected goals in this matchCascavel U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.75

Araucaria U20

1.66

Cascavel U20

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

2.00

creates per match

2.08

1.41

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Araucaria U20

2.00

Cascavel U20

2.08

allows per match

Araucaria U20

1.41

Cascavel U20

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Araucaria U20+0.00on par

Cascavel U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araucaria U20 ↓

Cascavel U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Araucaria U20 or draw

59%

Araucaria U20 or Cascavel U20

77%

Draw or Cascavel U20

63%

Winning margin

Araucaria U20 wins by 2+

18%

Cascavel U20 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Araucaria U20 1+ goals

81%

Araucaria U20 2+ goals

49%

Araucaria U20 3+ goals

23%

Cascavel U20 1+ goals

83%

Cascavel U20 2+ goals

52%

Cascavel U20 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Araucaria U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Cascavel U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araucaria U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Cascavel U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araucaria U20 attack 2.00 + Cascavel U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cascavel U20 attack 2.08 + Araucaria U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Araucaria U20 scores more

37%

level

23%

Cascavel U20 scores more

41%

Cascavel U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cascavel U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff