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Araucaria U20 vs Arapongas U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Araucaria U20
Araucaria U20
FT
9 – 0
Arapongas U20
Arapongas U20
5/4/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 10Campo do Contenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Araucaria U2088%
×Draw8%
Arapongas U204%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araucaria U20
3.75
Arapongas U20
0.79

Araucaria U20 creates 375% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

creates per match

Araucaria U20
2.00
Arapongas U20
0.17

allows per match

Araucaria U20
1.41
Arapongas U20
5.50

finishing

Araucaria U20+0.00on par
Arapongas U20+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araucaria U20 ↓

Arapongas U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Araucaria U20 or draw
96%
Araucaria U20 or Arapongas U20
92%
Draw or Arapongas U20
12%

Winning margin

Araucaria U20 wins by 2+
73%
Arapongas U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Araucaria U20 1+ goals
97%
Araucaria U20 2+ goals
88%
Araucaria U20 3+ goals
70%
Arapongas U20 1+ goals
55%
Arapongas U20 2+ goals
19%
Arapongas U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Araucaria U20 (draw refunded)
95%
Arapongas U20 (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araucaria U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Arapongas U20 away — creates 0.17, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araucaria U20 attack 2.00 + Arapongas U20 defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Arapongas U20 attack 0.17 + Araucaria U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Araucaria U20 scores more
88%
level
8%
Arapongas U20 scores more
4%

Araucaria U20 at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Araucaria U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Araucaria U20 vs Arapongas U20

Araucaria U20 beat Arapongas U20 9-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Campo do Contenda in Contenda, Paraná.