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Ararat vs Pyunik Yerevan — Premier League 2019

Ararat
Ararat
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
4/18/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Ararat25%
×Draw26%
Pyunik Yerevan49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat
0.97
Pyunik Yerevan
1.49

Pyunik Yerevan creates 54% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 107 away

creates per match

Ararat
1.09
Pyunik Yerevan
1.75

allows per match

Ararat
1.23
Pyunik Yerevan
0.85

finishing

Ararat+0.00on par
Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ararat or draw
51%
Ararat or Pyunik Yerevan
74%
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
75%

Winning margin

Ararat wins by 2+
9%
Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ararat 1+ goals
62%
Ararat 2+ goals
25%
Ararat 3+ goals
7%
Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
77%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
44%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ararat (draw refunded)
33%
Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 107 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat attack 1.09 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.97

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.75 + Ararat defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ararat scores more
25%
level
26%
Pyunik Yerevan scores more
49%

Pyunik Yerevan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ararat 1–0 Pyunik Yerevan

Ararat beat Pyunik Yerevan 1-0 in Premier League on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in Yerevan.