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Ararat II vs Torpedo Yerevan — First League 2019

Ararat II
Ararat II
FT
5 – 2
Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
3/10/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ararat II62%
×Draw18%
Torpedo Yerevan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat II
2.76
Torpedo Yerevan
1.58

Ararat II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ararat II
2.02
Torpedo Yerevan
1.29

allows per match

Ararat II
1.88
Torpedo Yerevan
3.50

finishing

Ararat II+0.00on par
Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat II ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Ararat II or draw
79%
Ararat II or Torpedo Yerevan
82%
Draw or Torpedo Yerevan
38%

Winning margin

Ararat II wins by 2+
41%
Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ararat II 1+ goals
94%
Ararat II 2+ goals
76%
Ararat II 3+ goals
51%
Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
79%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
47%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ararat II (draw refunded)
75%
Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.88 · 86 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat II attack 2.02 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.76

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Ararat II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ararat II scores more
62%
level
18%
Torpedo Yerevan scores more
21%

Ararat II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ararat II 5–2 Torpedo Yerevan

Ararat II beat Torpedo Yerevan 5-2 in First League on March 10, 2020.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.