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Ararat II vs Noravank — First League 2019

Ararat II
Ararat II
FT
3 – 2
Noravank
Noravank
5/11/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ararat II38%
×Draw22%
Noravank39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat II
1.76
Noravank
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ararat II
2.02
Noravank
1.71

allows per match

Ararat II
1.88
Noravank
1.50

finishing

Ararat II+0.00on par
Noravank+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat II ↓

Noravank →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ararat II or draw
61%
Ararat II or Noravank
78%
Draw or Noravank
62%

Winning margin

Ararat II wins by 2+
20%
Noravank wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ararat II 1+ goals
83%
Ararat II 2+ goals
52%
Ararat II 3+ goals
26%
Noravank 1+ goals
83%
Noravank 2+ goals
53%
Noravank 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ararat II (draw refunded)
49%
Noravank (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.88 · 86 matches

Noravank away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat II attack 2.02 + Noravank defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.76

Noravank attack 1.71 + Ararat II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ararat II scores more
38%
level
22%
Noravank scores more
39%

Noravank at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Noravank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ararat II vs Noravank

Ararat II beat Noravank 3-2 in First League on May 11, 2021.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.