Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ararat II vs Lokomotiv — First League 2019

Ararat II
Ararat II
CANC
06:00
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
7/14/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ararat II25%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat II
1.58
Lokomotiv
2.44

Lokomotiv creates 54% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ararat II
2.02
Lokomotiv
3.00

allows per match

Ararat II
1.88
Lokomotiv
1.15

finishing

Ararat II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat II ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ararat II or draw
44%
Ararat II or Lokomotiv
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv
75%

Winning margin

Ararat II wins by 2+
11%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Ararat II 1+ goals
79%
Ararat II 2+ goals
47%
Ararat II 3+ goals
21%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
91%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
70%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Ararat II (draw refunded)
30%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.88 · 86 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat II attack 2.02 + Lokomotiv defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.58

Lokomotiv attack 3.00 + Ararat II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ararat II scores more
25%
level
19%
Lokomotiv scores more
56%

Lokomotiv at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ararat II face Lokomotiv (First League)

First League returns with Ararat II hosting Lokomotiv. Match starts July 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ararat II host Lokomotiv at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.