Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ararat II vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

Ararat II
Ararat II
FT
0 – 2
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
6/3/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Ararat II53%
×Draw20%
Alashkert II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat II
2.30
Alashkert II
1.63

Ararat II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 64 away

creates per match

Ararat II
2.02
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

Ararat II
1.88
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

Ararat II+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat II ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Ararat II or draw
73%
Ararat II or Alashkert II
80%
Draw or Alashkert II
47%

Winning margin

Ararat II wins by 2+
32%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ararat II 1+ goals
90%
Ararat II 2+ goals
67%
Ararat II 3+ goals
40%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
80%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
48%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ararat II (draw refunded)
66%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.88 · 86 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat II attack 2.02 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.30

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Ararat II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ararat II scores more
53%
level
20%
Alashkert II scores more
27%

Ararat II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ararat II vs Alashkert II

Alashkert II beat Ararat II 2-0 in First League on June 3, 2020.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.