Alashkert II 0–2 Ararat II: Result & Stats

Alashkert II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ararat II

3/4/2023

First League · Round 19Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Alashkert II35%

×Draw22%

Ararat II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alashkert IIExpected goals in this matchArarat II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.94

Alashkert II

1.73

Ararat II

1.94

Ararat II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 83 away

1.63

creates per match

1.55

2.34

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Alashkert II

1.63

Ararat II

1.55

allows per match

Alashkert II

2.34

Ararat II

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par

Ararat II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Ararat II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw

57%

Alashkert II or Ararat II

78%

Draw or Ararat II

65%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+

18%

Ararat II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals

82%

Alashkert II 2+ goals

52%

Alashkert II 3+ goals

25%

Ararat II 1+ goals

86%

Ararat II 2+ goals

58%

Ararat II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)

45%

Ararat II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Ararat II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.84 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Ararat II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ararat II attack 1.55 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alashkert II scores more

35%

level

22%

Ararat II scores more

43%

Ararat II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff