Ararat-Armenia 0–2 Van: Result & Stats

Ararat-Armenia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Van

3/3/2024

Premier League · Round 23Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Ararat-Armenia61%

×Draw22%

Van17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat-ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchVan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.83

Ararat-Armenia

1.83

Van

0.83

Ararat-Armenia creates 120% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 95 away

2.06

creates per match

0.85

0.82

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia

2.06

Van

0.85

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia

0.82

Van

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Van+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

Van →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw

83%

Ararat-Armenia or Van

78%

Draw or Van

39%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

36%

Van wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

84%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

54%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

28%

Van 1+ goals

56%

Van 2+ goals

20%

Van 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

79%

Van (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Van away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.60 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 2.06 + Van defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.83

Van attack 0.85 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more

61%

level

22%

Van scores more

17%

Ararat-Armenia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff