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Ararat-Armenia vs Shirak — Premier League 2019

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Shirak
Shirak
5/3/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Ararat-Armenia63%
×Draw21%
Shirak16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia
1.97
Shirak
0.86

Ararat-Armenia creates 129% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 91 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia
2.06
Shirak
0.90

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia
0.82
Shirak
1.88

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par
Shirak+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

Shirak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw
84%
Ararat-Armenia or Shirak
79%
Draw or Shirak
37%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+
38%
Shirak wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals
86%
Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals
58%
Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals
31%
Shirak 1+ goals
58%
Shirak 2+ goals
21%
Shirak 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)
80%
Shirak (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Shirak away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.88 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 2.06 + Shirak defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.97

Shirak attack 0.90 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more
63%
level
21%
Shirak scores more
16%

Ararat-Armenia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ararat-Armenia vs Shirak

Ararat-Armenia beat Shirak 5-1 in Premier League on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.