Ararat-Armenia 3–1 Pyunik Yerevan: Result & Stats

Ararat-Armenia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Pyunik Yerevan

2/23/2024

Premier League · Round 21Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Ararat-Armenia41%

×Draw26%

Pyunik Yerevan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat-ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchPyunik Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.28

Ararat-Armenia

1.46

Pyunik Yerevan

1.28

Ararat-Armenia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 107 away

2.06

creates per match

1.75

0.82

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia

2.06

Pyunik Yerevan

1.75

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia

0.82

Pyunik Yerevan

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw

67%

Ararat-Armenia or Pyunik Yerevan

74%

Draw or Pyunik Yerevan

59%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

20%

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

77%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

43%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

18%

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals

72%

Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals

37%

Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

56%

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 2.06 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.46

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.75 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more

41%

level

26%

Pyunik Yerevan scores more

33%

Ararat-Armenia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff