Ararat-Armenia 3–0 Gandzasar: Result & Stats

Ararat-Armenia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gandzasar

K. Muradyan 90+3'

A. Rodríguez 89'

M. Noubissi 6'

11/21/2024

Premier League · Round 17Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ararat-Armenia64%

×Draw21%

Gandzasar14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat-ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchGandzasar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.78

Ararat-Armenia

1.93

Gandzasar

0.78

Ararat-Armenia creates 147% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 42 away

2.06

creates per match

0.74

0.82

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia

2.06

Gandzasar

0.74

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia

0.82

Gandzasar

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Gandzasar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

Gandzasar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw

86%

Ararat-Armenia or Gandzasar

79%

Draw or Gandzasar

36%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

39%

Gandzasar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

85%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

57%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

30%

Gandzasar 1+ goals

54%

Gandzasar 2+ goals

18%

Gandzasar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

82%

Gandzasar (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Gandzasar away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 2.06 + Gandzasar defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.93

Gandzasar attack 0.74 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more

64%

level

21%

Gandzasar scores more

14%

Ararat-Armenia at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Noubissi

19'

M. Noubissi

46'

H. Harutyunyan← A. Tera

54'

G. Muradyan← S. Shahinyan

62'

B. Mani

65'

A. Serobyan← J. Duarte

65'

E. Grigoryan← H. Hakobyan

65'

E. Soghomonyan← A. Tatintsyan

72'

A. Rodríguez← M. Noubissi

84'

K. Muradyan← E. Ocansey

84'

A. Kocharyan← B. Mani

84'

C. Samson← I. Opoku

87'

89'

A. Rodríguez

90+3'

K. Muradyan

Ararat-Armenia

Gandzasar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Minasyan

46'▲H. Harutyunyan←▼A. Tera

65'▲A. Serobyan←▼J. Duarte

65'▲E. Grigoryan←▼H. Hakobyan

72'▲A. Rodríguez←▼M. Noubissi

84'▲K. Muradyan←▼E. Ocansey

Ararat-Armenia substitutes

HarutyunyanSerobyanGrigoryanRodríguezMuradyanBeglaryanPetrosyanGbomaduAlaverdyanManasyan

Manager: K. Barseghyan

54'▲G. Muradyan←▼S. Shahinyan

65'▲E. Soghomonyan←▼A. Tatintsyan

84'▲A. Kocharyan←▼B. Mani

84'▲C. Samson←▼I. Opoku

Gandzasar substitutes

MuradyanSoghomonyanKocharyanSamsonKirakosyanYedigaryanMatevosyanMelkonyanDavtyanKarapetyanPepeChiloyan

Match Recap: Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar

Ararat-Armenia beat Gandzasar 3-0 in Premier League on November 21, 2024.

Goals: M. Noubissi (6'), A. Rodríguez (89'), K. Muradyan (90+3').

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.

Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar