Ararat-Armenia 2–1 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

Ararat-Armenia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

F91 Dudelange

I. Antonov 90+3'

Mailson 22'

D. Sinani 68'

8/22/2019

UEFA Europa League · Play-offsVazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ararat-Armenia56%

×Draw21%

F91 Dudelange23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat-ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.23

Ararat-Armenia

2.05

F91 Dudelange

1.23

Ararat-Armenia creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia

1.50

F91 Dudelange

1.20

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia

1.25

F91 Dudelange

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw

77%

Ararat-Armenia or F91 Dudelange

79%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

44%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

33%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

87%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

61%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

33%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

71%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

35%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

71%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 1.50 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

F91 Dudelange attack 1.20 + Ararat-Armenia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more

56%

level

21%

F91 Dudelange scores more

23%

Ararat-Armenia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Mailson↳ G. Pashov

54'

O. Natami← D. Stolz

56'

A. Ambartsumyan← P. Avetisyan

67'

Mario Pokar

68'

D. Sinani

75'

L. Ogana← A. Kobyalko

76'

Omar Natami

78'

Alphonse

78'

M. Garos← R. Klapp

82'

I. Antonov← G. Malakyan

84'

Aleksandar Damchevski

90+2'

M. Ouamri← D. Sinani

90+3'

I. Antonov↳ Mailson

Ararat-Armenia4-3-3

F915-3-2

9

⚽

▼

Sinani

10

▼

Stolz

23

▼

8

22

24

15

28

5

34

1

33

20

21

3

6

A

Pashov

8

▼

Malakyan

77

▼

Avetisyan

63

Alphonse

94

⚽A

Lima

32

▼

Kobyalko

27

Narsingh

Manager: V. Minasyan

56'▲A. Ambartsumyan←▼P. Avetisyan

75'▲L. Ogana←▼A. Kobyalko

82'▲I. Antonov←▼G. Malakyan

Ararat-Armenia substitutes

44Cupic22Danielyan10Ambartsumyan67Antonov93Christian17Sanogo99Ogana

Manager: E. Ferrera

54'▲O. Natami←▼D. Stolz

78'▲M. Garos←▼R. Klapp

90+2'▲M. Ouamri←▼D. Sinani

F91 Dudelange substitutes

30Kips4Cools16Lesquoy20Garos77Bougrine13Natami94Ouamri