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Ararat-Armenia II vs Shirak II — First League 2019

Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
FT
0 – 2
Shirak II
Shirak II
5/5/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ararat-Armenia II52%
×Draw21%
Shirak II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia II
2.12
Shirak II
1.50

Ararat-Armenia II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.80
Shirak II
1.17

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.82
Shirak II
2.43

finishing

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par
Shirak II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia II ↓

Shirak II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia II or draw
73%
Ararat-Armenia II or Shirak II
79%
Draw or Shirak II
48%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
31%
Shirak II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
88%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
62%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
35%
Shirak II 1+ goals
78%
Shirak II 2+ goals
44%
Shirak II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
65%
Shirak II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.82 · 98 matches

Shirak II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.80 + Shirak II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.12

Shirak II attack 1.17 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ararat-Armenia II scores more
52%
level
21%
Shirak II scores more
27%

Ararat-Armenia II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ararat-Armenia II vs Shirak II

Shirak II beat Ararat-Armenia II 2-0 in First League on May 5, 2025.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.