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Ararat-Armenia II vs Sevan — First League 2019

Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
CANC
08:00
Sevan
Sevan
5/3/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ararat-Armenia II32%
×Draw22%
Sevan46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia II
1.56
Sevan
1.93

Sevan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.80
Sevan
2.04

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.82
Sevan
1.32

finishing

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par
Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia II ↓

Sevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia II or draw
54%
Ararat-Armenia II or Sevan
78%
Draw or Sevan
68%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
15%
Sevan wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
79%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
46%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
21%
Sevan 1+ goals
85%
Sevan 2+ goals
57%
Sevan 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
40%
Sevan (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.82 · 98 matches

Sevan away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.80 + Sevan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sevan attack 2.04 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ararat-Armenia II scores more
32%
level
22%
Sevan scores more
46%

Sevan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ararat-Armenia II vs Sevan — Match Preview

Ararat-Armenia II face Sevan on May 3, 2021 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ararat-Armenia II host Sevan at Yerevan Football Academy.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.