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Ararat-Armenia II vs Masis — First League 2019

Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
FT
3 – 2
Masis
Masis
9/16/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ararat-Armenia II53%
×Draw21%
Masis26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia II
2.19
Masis
1.48

Ararat-Armenia II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.80
Masis
1.14

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.82
Masis
2.57

finishing

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par
Masis+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia II ↓

Masis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia II or draw
74%
Ararat-Armenia II or Masis
79%
Draw or Masis
47%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
32%
Masis wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
89%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
64%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
37%
Masis 1+ goals
77%
Masis 2+ goals
43%
Masis 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
67%
Masis (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.82 · 98 matches

Masis away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.80 + Masis defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.19

Masis attack 1.14 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ararat-Armenia II scores more
53%
level
21%
Masis scores more
26%

Ararat-Armenia II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ararat-Armenia II 3–2 Masis

Ararat-Armenia II beat Masis 3-2 in First League on September 16, 2019.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.