Ararat-Armenia II 1–1 Lernayin Artsakh

Ararat-Armenia II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lernayin Artsakh

11/3/2023

First League · Round 14Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Ararat-Armenia II37%

×Draw22%

Lernayin Artsakh40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat-Armenia IIExpected goals in this matchLernayin Artsakh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.78

Ararat-Armenia II

1.70

Lernayin Artsakh

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 81 away

1.80

creates per match

1.74

1.82

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia II

1.80

Lernayin Artsakh

1.74

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia II

1.82

Lernayin Artsakh

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia II ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia II or draw

60%

Ararat-Armenia II or Lernayin Artsakh

78%

Draw or Lernayin Artsakh

63%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+

19%

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals

82%

Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals

51%

Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals

24%

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals

83%

Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals

53%

Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)

48%

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.82 · 98 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.80 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ararat-Armenia II scores more

37%

level

22%

Lernayin Artsakh scores more

40%

Lernayin Artsakh at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff