Arar 1–1 Jeddah Club: Result & Stats | Division 1

Arar

FT

1 – 1

Jeddah Club

3/21/2021

Division 1 · Round 27Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arar33%

×Draw27%

Jeddah Club41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArarExpected goals in this matchJeddah Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.36

Arar

1.19

Jeddah Club

1.36

Jeddah Club creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 127 away

1.00

creates per match

1.19

1.53

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Arar

1.00

Jeddah Club

1.19

allows per match

Arar

1.53

Jeddah Club

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arar+0.00on par

Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arar ↓

Jeddah Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Arar or draw

59%

Arar or Jeddah Club

73%

Draw or Jeddah Club

67%

Winning margin

Arar wins by 2+

14%

Jeddah Club wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Arar 1+ goals

70%

Arar 2+ goals

33%

Arar 3+ goals

12%

Jeddah Club 1+ goals

74%

Jeddah Club 2+ goals

39%

Jeddah Club 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Arar (draw refunded)

45%

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Jeddah Club away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arar attack 1.00 + Jeddah Club defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Jeddah Club attack 1.19 + Arar defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arar scores more

33%

level

27%

Jeddah Club scores more

41%

Jeddah Club at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jeddah Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff