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Arar vs Al Nahdha — Division 1 2018

Arar
Arar
FT
3 – 1
Al Nahdha
Al Nahdha
12/9/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 9Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arar36%
×Draw28%
Al Nahdha36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arar
1.20
Al Nahdha
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

creates per match

Arar
1.00
Al Nahdha
0.85

allows per match

Arar
1.53
Al Nahdha
1.40

finishing

Arar+0.00on par
Al Nahdha+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arar ↓

Al Nahdha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arar or draw
64%
Arar or Al Nahdha
72%
Draw or Al Nahdha
64%

Winning margin

Arar wins by 2+
15%
Al Nahdha wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arar 1+ goals
70%
Arar 2+ goals
34%
Arar 3+ goals
12%
Al Nahdha 1+ goals
70%
Al Nahdha 2+ goals
33%
Al Nahdha 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arar (draw refunded)
50%
Al Nahdha (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Al Nahdha away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arar attack 1.00 + Al Nahdha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Al Nahdha attack 0.85 + Arar defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Arar scores more
36%
level
28%
Al Nahdha scores more
36%

Arar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Arar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arar 3 – 1 Al Nahdha

Arar beat Al Nahdha 3-1 in Division 1 on December 9, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium in Arar.