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Arar vs Al Khaleej Saihat — Division 1 2018

Arar
Arar
FT
2 – 3
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
1/6/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 14Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arar29%
×Draw27%
Al Khaleej Saihat44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arar
1.08
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.38

Al Khaleej Saihat creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

creates per match

Arar
1.00
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.22

allows per match

Arar
1.53
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.17

finishing

Arar+0.00on par
Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arar ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arar or draw
56%
Arar or Al Khaleej Saihat
73%
Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat
71%

Winning margin

Arar wins by 2+
11%
Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Arar 1+ goals
66%
Arar 2+ goals
29%
Arar 3+ goals
10%
Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
75%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
40%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Arar (draw refunded)
40%
Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arar attack 1.00 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.22 + Arar defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arar scores more
29%
level
27%
Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
44%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arar 2 – 3 Al Khaleej Saihat

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Arar 3-2 in Division 1 on January 6, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium in Arar.