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Arar vs Al-Fayha — Division 1 2018

Arar
Arar
FT
1 – 4
Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
12/23/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 11Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arar21%
×Draw24%
Al-Fayha55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arar
0.92
Al-Fayha
1.66

Al-Fayha creates 80% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Arar
1.00
Al-Fayha
1.79

allows per match

Arar
1.53
Al-Fayha
0.84

finishing

Arar+0.00on par
Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arar ↓

Al-Fayha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arar or draw
45%
Arar or Al-Fayha
76%
Draw or Al-Fayha
79%

Winning margin

Arar wins by 2+
7%
Al-Fayha wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Arar 1+ goals
60%
Arar 2+ goals
23%
Arar 3+ goals
7%
Al-Fayha 1+ goals
81%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
49%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Arar (draw refunded)
28%
Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Al-Fayha away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arar attack 1.00 + Al-Fayha defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Al-Fayha attack 1.79 + Arar defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arar scores more
21%
level
24%
Al-Fayha scores more
55%

Al-Fayha at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arar vs Al-Fayha

Al-Fayha beat Arar 4-1 in Division 1 on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium in Arar.