Arapongas U20 0–2 Parana S.T.C. U20: Result & Stats

Arapongas U20

FT

0 – 2

Parana S.T.C. U20

3/15/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 3Estádio Municipal José Aparecido de Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Arapongas U2022%

×Draw17%

Parana S.T.C. U2061%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arapongas U20Expected goals in this matchParana S.T.C. U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

3.00

Arapongas U20

1.83

Parana S.T.C. U20

3.00

Parana S.T.C. U20 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.17

creates per match

1.50

4.50

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Arapongas U20

1.17

Parana S.T.C. U20

1.50

allows per match

Arapongas U20

4.50

Parana S.T.C. U20

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arapongas U20+0.00on par

Parana S.T.C. U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arapongas U20 ↓

Parana S.T.C. U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Arapongas U20 or draw

39%

Arapongas U20 or Parana S.T.C. U20

83%

Draw or Parana S.T.C. U20

78%

Winning margin

Arapongas U20 wins by 2+

11%

Parana S.T.C. U20 wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Arapongas U20 1+ goals

84%

Arapongas U20 2+ goals

54%

Arapongas U20 3+ goals

28%

Parana S.T.C. U20 1+ goals

95%

Parana S.T.C. U20 2+ goals

79%

Parana S.T.C. U20 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Arapongas U20 (draw refunded)

27%

Parana S.T.C. U20 (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arapongas U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 4.50 · 6 matches

Parana S.T.C. U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arapongas U20 attack 1.17 + Parana S.T.C. U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Parana S.T.C. U20 attack 1.50 + Arapongas U20 defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Arapongas U20 scores more

22%

level

17%

Parana S.T.C. U20 scores more

61%

Parana S.T.C. U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Parana S.T.C. U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff