Arapongas U20 1–5 Londrina U20: Result & Stats

Arapongas U20

FT

1 – 5

Londrina U20

4/6/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 6Estádio Municipal José Aparecido de Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Arapongas U2016%

×Draw15%

Londrina U2069%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arapongas U20Expected goals in this matchLondrina U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

3.19

Arapongas U20

1.52

Londrina U20

3.19

Londrina U20 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.17

creates per match

1.87

4.50

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Arapongas U20

1.17

Londrina U20

1.87

allows per match

Arapongas U20

4.50

Londrina U20

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arapongas U20+0.00on par

Londrina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arapongas U20 ↓

Londrina U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Arapongas U20 or draw

31%

Arapongas U20 or Londrina U20

85%

Draw or Londrina U20

84%

Winning margin

Arapongas U20 wins by 2+

7%

Londrina U20 wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Arapongas U20 1+ goals

78%

Arapongas U20 2+ goals

45%

Arapongas U20 3+ goals

20%

Londrina U20 1+ goals

96%

Londrina U20 2+ goals

82%

Londrina U20 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Arapongas U20 (draw refunded)

19%

Londrina U20 (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arapongas U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 4.50 · 6 matches

Londrina U20 away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arapongas U20 attack 1.17 + Londrina U20 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Londrina U20 attack 1.87 + Arapongas U20 defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Arapongas U20 scores more

16%

level

15%

Londrina U20 scores more

69%

Londrina U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Londrina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff