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Arapongas U20 vs Independente FSJ U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Arapongas U20
Arapongas U20
FT
0 – 3
Independente FSJ U20
Independente FSJ U20
4/20/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 8Estádio Municipal Uady Chaiben

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Arapongas U207%
×Draw10%
Independente FSJ U2083%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arapongas U20
1.33
Independente FSJ U20
4.25

Independente FSJ U20 creates 220% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Arapongas U20
1.17
Independente FSJ U20
4.00

allows per match

Arapongas U20
4.50
Independente FSJ U20
1.50

finishing

Arapongas U20+0.00on par
Independente FSJ U20+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arapongas U20 ↓

Independente FSJ U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Arapongas U20 or draw
17%
Arapongas U20 or Independente FSJ U20
90%
Draw or Independente FSJ U20
93%

Winning margin

Arapongas U20 wins by 2+
3%
Independente FSJ U20 wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Arapongas U20 1+ goals
74%
Arapongas U20 2+ goals
38%
Arapongas U20 3+ goals
15%
Independente FSJ U20 1+ goals
98%
Independente FSJ U20 2+ goals
91%
Independente FSJ U20 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

Arapongas U20 (draw refunded)
8%
Independente FSJ U20 (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arapongas U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 4.50 · 6 matches

Independente FSJ U20 away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arapongas U20 attack 1.17 + Independente FSJ U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Independente FSJ U20 attack 4.00 + Arapongas U20 defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 4.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Arapongas U20 scores more
7%
level
10%
Independente FSJ U20 scores more
83%

Independente FSJ U20 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Independente FSJ U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arapongas U20 vs Independente FSJ U20

Independente FSJ U20 beat Arapongas U20 3-0 in Paranaense U20 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Uady Chaiben in Londrina, Paraná.