Arapongas U20 0–6 Cascavel U20: Result & Stats

Arapongas U20

FT

0 – 6

Cascavel U20

5/18/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 12Estádio Municipal José Aparecido de Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Arapongas U2011%

×Draw13%

Cascavel U2075%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arapongas U20Expected goals in this matchCascavel U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

3.29

Arapongas U20

1.25

Cascavel U20

3.29

Cascavel U20 creates 163% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

1.17

creates per match

2.08

4.50

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Arapongas U20

1.17

Cascavel U20

2.08

allows per match

Arapongas U20

4.50

Cascavel U20

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arapongas U20+0.00on par

Cascavel U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arapongas U20 ↓

Cascavel U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Arapongas U20 or draw

25%

Arapongas U20 or Cascavel U20

87%

Draw or Cascavel U20

89%

Winning margin

Arapongas U20 wins by 2+

4%

Cascavel U20 wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Arapongas U20 1+ goals

71%

Arapongas U20 2+ goals

36%

Arapongas U20 3+ goals

13%

Cascavel U20 1+ goals

96%

Cascavel U20 2+ goals

83%

Cascavel U20 3+ goals

62%

Draw no bet

Arapongas U20 (draw refunded)

13%

Cascavel U20 (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arapongas U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 4.50 · 6 matches

Cascavel U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arapongas U20 attack 1.17 + Cascavel U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cascavel U20 attack 2.08 + Arapongas U20 defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Arapongas U20 scores more

11%

level

13%

Cascavel U20 scores more

75%

Cascavel U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Cascavel U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff