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Arandina vs Unami — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Arandina
Arandina
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Unami
Unami
1/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Estadio El Montecillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arandina70%
×Draw20%
Unami10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arandina
1.94
Unami
0.57

Arandina creates 240% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 15 away

creates per match

Arandina
1.60
Unami
0.33

allows per match

Arandina
0.80
Unami
2.27

finishing

Arandina+0.00on par
Unami+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arandina ↓

Unami →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arandina or draw
90%
Arandina or Unami
80%
Draw or Unami
30%

Winning margin

Arandina wins by 2+
44%
Unami wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Arandina 1+ goals
86%
Arandina 2+ goals
58%
Arandina 3+ goals
30%
Unami 1+ goals
43%
Unami 2+ goals
11%
Unami 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Arandina (draw refunded)
87%
Unami (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arandina at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Unami away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arandina attack 1.60 + Unami defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.94

Unami attack 0.33 + Arandina defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Arandina scores more
70%
level
20%
Unami scores more
10%

Arandina at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arandina vs Unami

Arandina beat Unami 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Montecillo in Aranda de Duero.