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Arandina vs Ribert — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Arandina
Arandina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ribert
Ribert
2/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 22Estadio El Montecillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arandina58%
×Draw24%
Ribert19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arandina
1.74
Ribert
0.87

Arandina creates 100% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 16 away

creates per match

Arandina
1.60
Ribert
0.94

allows per match

Arandina
0.80
Ribert
1.88

finishing

Arandina+0.00on par
Ribert+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arandina ↓

Ribert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arandina or draw
81%
Arandina or Ribert
76%
Draw or Ribert
42%

Winning margin

Arandina wins by 2+
33%
Ribert wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arandina 1+ goals
82%
Arandina 2+ goals
52%
Arandina 3+ goals
25%
Ribert 1+ goals
58%
Ribert 2+ goals
22%
Ribert 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arandina (draw refunded)
76%
Ribert (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arandina at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Ribert away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arandina attack 1.60 + Ribert defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.74

Ribert attack 0.94 + Arandina defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Arandina scores more
58%
level
24%
Ribert scores more
19%

Arandina at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arandina vs Ribert

Arandina beat Ribert 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Montecillo in Aranda de Duero.