Arandina 3–0 Real Burgos: Result & Stats

Arandina

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Burgos

3/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Estadio El Montecillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Arandina57%

×Draw23%

Real Burgos19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArandinaExpected goals in this matchReal Burgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.90

Arandina

1.75

Real Burgos

0.90

Arandina creates 94% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 30 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Arandina

1.60

Real Burgos

1.00

allows per match

Arandina

0.80

Real Burgos

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arandina+0.00on par

Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arandina ↓

Real Burgos →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arandina or draw

81%

Arandina or Real Burgos

77%

Draw or Real Burgos

43%

Winning margin

Arandina wins by 2+

32%

Real Burgos wins by 2+

Team goals

Arandina 1+ goals

83%

Arandina 2+ goals

52%

Arandina 3+ goals

25%

Real Burgos 1+ goals

59%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

23%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arandina (draw refunded)

75%

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arandina at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arandina attack 1.60 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Arandina defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arandina scores more

57%

level

23%

Real Burgos scores more

19%

Arandina at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff