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Arandina vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Arandina
Arandina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
I. Jakovlev 89'
Álvaro Belizón 53'
Chema Suárez 64'
1/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 24Estadio El Montecillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Arandina59%
×Draw24%
La Bañeza17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arandina
1.64
La Bañeza
0.74

Arandina creates 122% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 31 away

creates per match

Arandina
1.60
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Arandina
0.80
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Arandina+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arandina ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arandina or draw
83%
Arandina or La Bañeza
76%
Draw or La Bañeza
41%

Winning margin

Arandina wins by 2+
32%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Arandina 1+ goals
81%
Arandina 2+ goals
49%
Arandina 3+ goals
23%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
52%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
17%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arandina (draw refunded)
78%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arandina at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arandina attack 1.60 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Arandina defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Arandina scores more
59%
level
24%
La Bañeza scores more
17%

Arandina at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
Álvaro Belizón
57'
Chema Suárez← Adrián Rojo
61'
Sagüés← Zazu
64'
Chema Suárez
67'
I. Jakovlev← Álvaro Belizón
75'
Sampedro← Samuel Mayo
78'
Fábio Fonseca← Iván Cifuentes
81'
Mateo← Diego García
89'
I. Jakovlev
Arandina
La
Camilo
Camilo
Garrido
Garrido
Viti
Viti
Hamelín
Hamelín
Aitor García
García
Samuel Mayo
▼
Mayo
Adrián Rojo
▼
Rojo
Diego García
▼
García
Marcos Ordás
Ordás
Lorento
Lorento
Pablo Martínez
Martínez
Pablo Vicente
Vicente
Jorge Pesca
Pesca
Diego Rubio
Rubio
Borja Paris
Paris
Daniel Munguía
Munguía
Zazu
▼
Zazu
Marcos Barbero
Barbero
Álvaro Belizón
⚽
▼
Belizón
Iván Cifuentes
▼
Cifuentes
Fran Adeva
Adeva
Diego Abad
Abad
Álex Izquierdo
Manager: Álex Izquierdo
61'▲Sagüés←▼Zazu
67'▲I. Jakovlev←▼Álvaro Belizón
78'▲Fábio Fonseca←▼Iván Cifuentes

Arandina substitutes

SagüésJakovlevFonseca
Carlos Delgado
Manager: Carlos Delgado
57'▲Chema Suárez←▼Adrián Rojo
75'▲Sampedro←▼Samuel Mayo
81'▲Mateo←▼Diego García

La Bañeza substitutes

SuárezSampedroMateo

Arandina 2 – 1 La Bañeza

Arandina beat La Bañeza 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 26, 2020.

Goals: Álvaro Belizón (53'), Chema Suárez (64'), I. Jakovlev (89').

The match was played at Estadio El Montecillo in Aranda de Duero.