Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arandina vs Cultural Cebrereña — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Arandina
Arandina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
12/27/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2Estadio El Montecillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arandina59%
×Draw23%
Cultural Cebrereña18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arandina
1.74
Cultural Cebrereña
0.84

Arandina creates 107% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 16 away

creates per match

Arandina
1.60
Cultural Cebrereña
0.88

allows per match

Arandina
0.80
Cultural Cebrereña
1.88

finishing

Arandina+0.00on par
Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arandina ↓

Cultural Cebrereña →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arandina or draw
82%
Arandina or Cultural Cebrereña
77%
Draw or Cultural Cebrereña
41%

Winning margin

Arandina wins by 2+
33%
Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arandina 1+ goals
82%
Arandina 2+ goals
52%
Arandina 3+ goals
25%
Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
57%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
21%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arandina (draw refunded)
77%
Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arandina at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Cultural Cebrereña away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arandina attack 1.60 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.74

Cultural Cebrereña attack 0.88 + Arandina defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Arandina scores more
59%
level
23%
Cultural Cebrereña scores more
18%

Arandina at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Arandina 2–1 Cultural Cebrereña

Arandina beat Cultural Cebrereña 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Montecillo in Aranda de Duero.