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Arameiska / Syrianska vs Syrianska FC — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Arameiska / Syrianska
Arameiska / Syrianska
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
10/5/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 24Brunna IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Arameiska / Syrianska42%
×Draw23%
Syrianska FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arameiska / Syrianska
1.80
Syrianska FC
1.63

Arameiska / Syrianska creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 73 away

creates per match

Arameiska / Syrianska
1.74
Syrianska FC
1.73

allows per match

Arameiska / Syrianska
1.52
Syrianska FC
1.86

finishing

Arameiska / Syrianska+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arameiska / Syrianska ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Arameiska / Syrianska or draw
65%
Arameiska / Syrianska or Syrianska FC
77%
Draw or Syrianska FC
58%

Winning margin

Arameiska / Syrianska wins by 2+
22%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Arameiska / Syrianska 1+ goals
83%
Arameiska / Syrianska 2+ goals
54%
Arameiska / Syrianska 3+ goals
27%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
80%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
48%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Arameiska / Syrianska (draw refunded)
54%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arameiska / Syrianska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.52 · 85 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arameiska / Syrianska attack 1.74 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.80

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Arameiska / Syrianska defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arameiska / Syrianska scores more
42%
level
23%
Syrianska FC scores more
35%

Arameiska / Syrianska at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arameiska / Syrianska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arameiska / Syrianska vs Syrianska FC

Arameiska / Syrianska beat Syrianska FC 3-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Brunna IP in Botkyrka.