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Arambagh vs Team BJMC — Premier League 2019

Arambagh
Arambagh
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Team BJMC
Team BJMC
4/8/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Mymensingh Stadium (Mymensingh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Arambagh43%
×Draw27%
Team BJMC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arambagh
1.34
Team BJMC
1.08

Arambagh creates 24% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 12 away

creates per match

Arambagh
0.94
Team BJMC
0.58

allows per match

Arambagh
1.58
Team BJMC
1.75

finishing

Arambagh+0.00on par
Team BJMC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arambagh ↓

Team BJMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arambagh or draw
70%
Arambagh or Team BJMC
73%
Draw or Team BJMC
57%

Winning margin

Arambagh wins by 2+
20%
Team BJMC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arambagh 1+ goals
74%
Arambagh 2+ goals
39%
Arambagh 3+ goals
15%
Team BJMC 1+ goals
66%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
29%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arambagh (draw refunded)
59%
Team BJMC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arambagh at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 36 matches

Team BJMC away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arambagh attack 0.94 + Team BJMC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.34

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Arambagh defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arambagh scores more
43%
level
27%
Team BJMC scores more
30%

Arambagh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arambagh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arambagh vs Team BJMC

Arambagh beat Team BJMC 2-1 in Premier League on April 8, 2019.

The match was played at Mymensingh Stadium (Mymensingh).