Aral 2–1 Respublika FA: Result & Stats

Aral

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Respublika FA

R. Kalmagambetov 69', 56' (pen)

Unknown 90'

4/5/2026

Pro League A · Round 1NOPSTTM

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aral53%

×Draw26%

Respublika FA21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AralExpected goals in this matchRespublika FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.85

Aral

1.53

Respublika FA

0.85

Aral creates 80% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 6 away

1.90

creates per match

1.17

0.53

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Aral

1.90

Respublika FA

1.17

allows per match

Aral

0.53

Respublika FA

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aral+0.00on par

Respublika FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aral ↓

Respublika FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aral or draw

79%

Aral or Respublika FA

74%

Draw or Respublika FA

47%

Winning margin

Aral wins by 2+

28%

Respublika FA wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aral 1+ goals

78%

Aral 2+ goals

45%

Aral 3+ goals

20%

Respublika FA 1+ goals

57%

Respublika FA 2+ goals

21%

Respublika FA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aral (draw refunded)

72%

Respublika FA (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aral at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

Respublika FA away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aral attack 1.90 + Respublika FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

Respublika FA attack 1.17 + Aral defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Aral scores more

53%

level

26%

Respublika FA scores more

21%

Aral at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

R. KalmagambetovPenalty

69'

R. Kalmagambetov

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff