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Aral vs Pakhtakor II — Pro League A 2026

Aral
Aral
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pakhtakor II
Pakhtakor II
R. Kalmagambetov 47', 10'
J. Khotamov 36' (OG)
6/3/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aral65%
×Draw21%
Pakhtakor II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aral
1.95
Pakhtakor II
0.77

Aral creates 153% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aral
1.90
Pakhtakor II
1.00

allows per match

Aral
0.53
Pakhtakor II
2.00

finishing

Aral+0.00on par
Pakhtakor II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aral ↓

Pakhtakor II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aral or draw
86%
Aral or Pakhtakor II
79%
Draw or Pakhtakor II
35%

Winning margin

Aral wins by 2+
40%
Pakhtakor II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aral 1+ goals
86%
Aral 2+ goals
58%
Aral 3+ goals
31%
Pakhtakor II 1+ goals
54%
Pakhtakor II 2+ goals
18%
Pakhtakor II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aral (draw refunded)
82%
Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aral at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

Pakhtakor II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aral attack 1.90 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Pakhtakor II attack 1.00 + Aral defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Aral scores more
65%
level
21%
Pakhtakor II scores more
14%

Aral at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Aral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
R. Kalmagambetov
36'
J. KhotamovOwn goal
47'
R. Kalmagambetov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aral vs Pakhtakor II

Aral beat Pakhtakor II 3-0 in Pro League A on June 3, 2026.

Goals: R. Kalmagambetov (10', 47'), J. Khotamov (36' o.g.).