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Aral vs Mash'al — Pro League A 2026

Aral
Aral
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mash'al
Mash'al
10/16/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aral49%
×Draw29%
Mash'al22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aral
1.29
Mash'al
0.76

Aral creates 70% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

creates per match

Aral
1.86
Mash'al
1.00

allows per match

Aral
0.52
Mash'al
0.71

finishing

Aral+0.00on par
Mash'al+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aral ↓

Mash'al →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aral or draw
78%
Aral or Mash'al
71%
Draw or Mash'al
51%

Winning margin

Aral wins by 2+
23%
Mash'al wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aral 1+ goals
72%
Aral 2+ goals
37%
Aral 3+ goals
14%
Mash'al 1+ goals
53%
Mash'al 2+ goals
18%
Mash'al 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aral (draw refunded)
69%
Mash'al (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aral at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.52 · 29 matches

Mash'al away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aral attack 1.86 + Mash'al defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mash'al attack 1.00 + Aral defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aral scores more
49%
level
29%
Mash'al scores more
22%

Aral at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aral vs Mash'al

Aral and Mash'al drew 0-0 in Pro League A on October 16, 2024.