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Aral vs Lochin — Pro League A 2026

Aral
Aral
Preview
13:00
Lochin
Lochin
9/13/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 19
Big match
36%
Lochin
model favours
35%28%36%

Top-of-the-table clash — Aral 1 vs Lochin 4

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aral35%
×Draw28%
Lochin36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aral
1.15
Lochin
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aral
1.90
Lochin
1.80

allows per match

Aral
0.53
Lochin
0.40

finishing

Aral+0.00on par
Lochin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aral ↓

Lochin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Aral or draw
64%
Aral or Lochin
72%
Draw or Lochin
65%

Winning margin

Aral wins by 2+
15%
Lochin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aral 1+ goals
68%
Aral 2+ goals
32%
Aral 3+ goals
11%
Lochin 1+ goals
69%
Lochin 2+ goals
33%
Lochin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aral (draw refunded)
49%
Lochin (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aral at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

Lochin away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aral attack 1.90 + Lochin defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Lochin attack 1.80 + Aral defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Aral scores more
35%
level
28%
Lochin scores more
36%

Lochin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lochin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Aral
WWWWW
Lochin
WWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Aral host Lochin

September 13, 2026: Aral take on Lochin in Pro League A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.