Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aral vs Kokand-1912 — Pro League A 2026

Aral
Aral
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Kokand-1912
Kokand-1912
A. Aliev 72'
D. Ismoilov 90+6'
I. Numonov 78'
B. Abdurakhimov 34'
3/26/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aral47%
×Draw30%
Kokand-191223%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aral
1.23
Kokand-1912
0.77

Aral creates 60% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

Aral
1.90
Kokand-1912
1.00

allows per match

Aral
0.53
Kokand-1912
0.57

finishing

Aral+0.00on par
Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aral ↓

Kokand-1912 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Aral or draw
77%
Aral or Kokand-1912
70%
Draw or Kokand-1912
53%

Winning margin

Aral wins by 2+
21%
Kokand-1912 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aral 1+ goals
71%
Aral 2+ goals
35%
Aral 3+ goals
13%
Kokand-1912 1+ goals
54%
Kokand-1912 2+ goals
18%
Kokand-1912 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aral (draw refunded)
67%
Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aral at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aral attack 1.90 + Kokand-1912 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kokand-1912 attack 1.00 + Aral defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aral scores more
47%
level
30%
Kokand-1912 scores more
23%

Aral at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
B. Abdurakhimov
72'
A. Aliev
78'
I. Numonov
90+6'
D. Ismoilov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Aral 1–3 Kokand-1912

Kokand-1912 beat Aral 3-1 in Pro League A on March 26, 2024.

Goals: B. Abdurakhimov (34'), A. Aliev (72'), I. Numonov (78'), D. Ismoilov (90+6').