Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Araioses vs Expressinho — Maranhense - 2 2026

Araioses
Araioses
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Expressinho
Expressinho
6/25/2026Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Araioses80%
×Draw17%
Expressinho3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araioses
1.88
Expressinho
0.17

Araioses creates 1006% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Araioses
1.75
Expressinho
0.33

allows per match

Araioses
0.00
Expressinho
2.00

finishing

Araioses+0.00on par
Expressinho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 87Yes: 1387%No
  • No87
  • Yes13

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araioses ↓

Expressinho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–14%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–023%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Araioses or draw
97%
Araioses or Expressinho
83%
Draw or Expressinho
20%

Winning margin

Araioses wins by 2+
51%
Expressinho wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Araioses 1+ goals
85%
Araioses 2+ goals
56%
Araioses 3+ goals
29%
Expressinho 1+ goals
16%
Expressinho 2+ goals
1%
Expressinho 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Araioses (draw refunded)
97%
Expressinho (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
9%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araioses at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Expressinho away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araioses attack 1.75 + Expressinho defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Expressinho attack 0.33 + Araioses defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Araioses scores more
80%
level
17%
Expressinho scores more
3%

Araioses at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Araioses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Araioses vs Expressinho

Araioses beat Expressinho 1-0 in Maranhense - 2 on June 25, 2026.